Some time ago, I built a simple, excel-based prediction engine for the inaugural "College Football Pick 'Em'" game with my family.
I was surprised with how accurate it ended up being. In the bowl games, it was more accurate than the picks of Mike Slabach (ESPN College Football), an aggregate of CBS College football analysts, as well as Mike Norris of Bleacher Report (blew him out of the water). It bested every expert I could find.
It predicted the upsets by TCU and Baylor. It accurately predicted the first round of the playoff.
And it has Clemson winning (by the slimmest of margins) in the Playoff Championship.
Final Score: 32-30, Clemson.
Now the one thing the model has failed to do well is account for teams in the SEC. It's only at 50% when the SEC is involved, so we'll see what happens. Either way, it should be a great game.
Until next time,
-Greg Lewis
No comments:
Post a Comment